Ice Age Possible for Scandinavia?

by Rickard Kohler

 Every year people plunge into the oceans of Scandinavia, enjoying the sun and the warm water.  How is this possible when Scandinavia is located along the same latitudinal line as Siberia and Northern Canada? Norway and Alaska are along the same latitudinal lines but Alaska's average temperature is seven degrees colder.  Scandinavia, as a whole, has a northern hemisphere climate with relatively mild winters and warm summers. How is this possible? 

 The Gulf Stream makes this possible and is the cause for the warm water and milder climate.  It plays an important part controlling the climate of the countries of Northern Europe. The current warms the coast evenly through the year, in winter as well as summer. The Gulf Stream provides a third as much warmth as the sun does. If it were not for the Gulf Stream, Scandinavia would be a much cooler place; about ten degrees colder then it is now. Today, scientists are concerned with the unthinkable; a scenario far worse then anyone could ever imagine!  What would happen if suddenly the Gulf Stream changed its direction or simply stopped? 

Gulf Stream

 This invisible river is considered to be part of the longest river in the world, a small connection to a large underwater conveyor belt that is responsible for the water temperature and climate of Scandinavia. It gets its strength by other currents that flow within the same area and by variations in the wind. A strong influence comes from the Coriolis Effect (rotation of the earth). The friction between windblown air and the water surface cause the Stream to move. In the Gulf Stream region, heating of the lower part of the atmosphere is strong.  The Gulf Stream transports warm water near the surface which encourages water to evaporate from its surface layer so it becomes increasingly salty. The flow has been estimated to be about 20 times greater then all the fresh water in the world flowing into the oceans from rain, rivers and melting ice. The Gulf Stream is bigger then the total of all the biggest rivers in the world.  It is calculated to be around 80-100 Km wide and extends to a depth of about 800-1200 meters with a maximum speed of 2 meters per second.

 The stream's origin begins with two equatorial currents, the north and the south, coming together in between the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea. As it leaves the Mexican Gulf at a rate of approximately 26 million cubic meters per second and a temperature of about 27 degrees celcius, the stream begins its journey along the coast of the United States where the rate increases to between 75-90 milion cubic meters and the water temperature decreases.  Around the Cape Hatteras area, the Gulf Stream begins to flow away from the coast eastward towards deeper water where it is not inhibited by underwater hills and mountains. One part goes towards the west coast of Europe, whereas another part surges past Europe and goes towards Scandinavia. At this point, its nature begins to change. It cools down significantly as it gives up heat to the northern Europe sea port. Around the latitude of southern Greenland, the moving stream becomes so dense that it sinks into the depth. It then becomes a cold river flowing back along the ocean floor towards south Africa.

Effects

 Scientists today are not only concerned with global warming, but the effect it will have on the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream may slow and maybe stop. According to recent data, the climate could change and become warmer as soon as the next three years, with the most damaging effects occuring between 2010-2020. Global heating of the Scandinavian lattitudes would decrease the cooling of the surface water, its density and its salt content because of increased raining. This global warming change will increase the sea level 0,4-0,6 m by 2080 by melting the northern glaciers, which in turn would bring more fresh cold water into the Atlantic. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet exceeds the annual snowfall, increasing freshwater runoff and thus increasing the freshening of the water in the North Atlantic Ocean. The large amount of fresh water from the glacier melt would stop the flow of the Gulf Stream, causing the ocean circulation pattern to change and thus stopping the main source of warm water to Scandinavia.  If the ocean becomes less salty, the stream would lose its density and sink.  The cold water that came from these glaciers would press the Stream back and force the warmer water to sink before it rached the coast of the northern countries. 

 The last time this happened was during the ice age when the polar caps melted, halting the Gulf Stream and leaving everything under ice. Sediments have been found on the bottom of the northern Atlantic Ocean and in the glaciers which proved the warm water streams going towards nothern Europe stopped during the last ice age between Norway and Greenland.  If the Gulf Stream did stop, the average temperature may fall as far as 10 degrees celcius. During an ice age, the circulation of the ocean is slow. The Gulf Stream's flow discontinues and would leave Scandinavia covered in a thick sheet of ice. This sea-ice cover in the upper part of Scandinavia would keep them in constant winter and summer would disappear.  By 2010, those areas would become un-livable and the population would migrate southward. 

There are signs today that the earth has begun to change. This model indicates that the glaciers have already started to melt, forcing freshwater into the Gulf Stream.  

Pentagon Report

 Within recent months, the Pentagon has released a study about the climate changing and the effect it would have on the world. An abrupt temperature change would come eventually and it would be inevitable. The study was based on information from 8200 years ago when the earth went through the same change. A sudden cooling of the earth appeared after a long, extended heat wave. At this time, the Gulf Stream collapsed. Because of this past data, the study suggests the fate of Europe. Although there is no way to make sure that the information can be used to foresee what will happen to the present day, the study does suggest some startling possibilities. The collapse of the Stream would be more visible in northern Europe for the first five years. The annual rainfall would decrease by 30%, causing a severe drought. An increase in wind would cause the temperature to drop about six degrees. Snow would remain on the ground, making Scandinavia in a constant winter phase. The cold would stretch onto the latter months making the summer cooler then before. Humans could neither develop agriculture or permanant settlements and in turn would move southward onto other parts of Europe, being pushed by the colder, unstable temperature from home. As the population moves, fights and even battles would break out within the mass migration. Resources within other countries would decline because of the sudden increase in population within their own country.  In defense, some countries would declare war. Not only would a climatic change move the population, but the fish, wildlife, water and energy consumption all would be effected. By the end of the decade, Europe's weather would be more of a mirror image of Siberia's or northern Canada's then what it looked like in the past. Unfortunately, the duration of this process could take decades and even centuries.

Could This Really Happen?

  Scientists believe this could happen over a period of time. After all, the ice age didn't happen over night but was gradual. 

Data does show that the seas have become less salty within the past 40 years which has lead to a less dense Atlantic Ocean. This past century has been known as the most rapid century of warming experienced by modern civilization. Within the past one hundred years, global warming has increased the average temperature on earth one degree celcius.

 According to some sceptics we are not to expect a collapse of the Gulf Stream but a decreasing rate with up to 20-25 %. The climate is unpredictable and no one can be sure what nature has in store for the planet. We do know, on the other hand, that anything is possible and the earth is due for another ice age within the near future. Maybe the most frustrating of all is we will never know how far and how many years remain until the inevitable.

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